Autonomy, electrification, and connectivity are reshaping the automotive landscape. To meet global demand, the industry must shift from selling cars to delivering flexible, sustainable systems built for everyone, writes Dr Christopher Borroni-Bird
The automotive industry faces an enormous challenge: to deliver sustainable and affordable mobility for all. While the revenue that drives innovation may come from the developed markets that are plugging into electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous technology, on a global level, only up to ten percent of the world’s population can afford to buy a new car.
For the remaining 90 percent of the world’s people, more affordable solutions are needed to move people and goods. For the vehicles that are currently bought, they need to be more sustainably made and used because they are becoming larger and more powerful every year.
Rethinking the future of the automotive industry
The automotive industry is going through a revolution, triggered in 2010 by three Silicon Valley companies; Tesla, Uber, and Alphabet (Waymo) jump-started the modern era of EVs, ride hailing and automated vehicles (AVs), but it’s only now that we’re beginning to see the challenges that may occur when these solutions reach scale.
Connected vehicles allow companies to collect and sell more data, offer services, and deliver over-the-air (OTA) updates, but the customer faces potential loss of privacy, security, and even vehicle functionality or access longer-term. EVs should be friendlier to the planet if they use recycled batteries and the electricity powering them is green, but if they weigh more than combustion-engined vehicles they pose a greater risk to other road users and may increase chances of vehicle-related fatalities. AVs could be the answer to safety, but on the flip side, they consume more energy due to the vast cloud compute resources needed to train them, and they could even encourage more road vehicle-based mobility, meaning potentially more vehicles on the road.
Only up to ten percent of the world’s population can afford to buy a new car
No challenge is insurmountable, but there appears to be a lack of joined up thinking in the mobility space. Vehicles are treated by regulatory agencies as standalone objects, even though their environmental impact goes far beyond mere vehicle operation, and reaches into areas such as raw material mining and resource-intense cloud computing. Add to this that safety performance is viewed primarily from the perspective of vehicle occupants, and it is clear that mobility solutions require more systemic thinking and greater collaboration between stakeholders.
A vision for integrated mobility
AV advocates believe that as the technology develops, road safety can be improved and vehicle energy usage can be reduced. However, there could be many reasons why this doesn’t happen; it isn’t certain that an AV would improve road safety compared to a human-driven vehicle, and it could end up consuming more energy overall.
But the same technologies and capabilities currently being developed by AV companies could be deployed in cities to transform urban mobility. So-called Robopod operation could be used to provide last-mile connectivity in the suburbs, addressing a weakness of public transport and providing people with the Holy Grail of affordable, on-demand, door-to-door mobility and without needing to find a parking space.
Complementing or even replacing individual car ownership with a comprehensive Mobility-as-a-System initiative could provide users a more convenient, sustainable, and affordable way to go wherever they want, whenever they want.
The key is to view transportation as an integrated and connected system that leverages the different strengths of bicycles, buses, and trains and combines them with right-sized vehicles that can serve everyone and dynamically adapt to changing needs.
An opportunity for the auto industry
This vision need not be a threat to the automotive industry; on the contrary, it could be a much-needed opportunity to augment existing business while being disrupted by autonomy, connectivity, and electrification, but these are areas that could help it face three megatrend headwinds.
The automotive industry is going through a revolution, triggered in 2010 by three Silicon Valley companies, namely Tesla, Uber and Alphabet (Waymo)
Firstly, the automobile is ill-suited to cities where most people live and face congestion, parking, road safety, air pollution, and accessibility challenges. Secondly, they are increasingly unaffordable to purchase, insure, and repair for the average person. And thirdly, with growing competition, some manufacturers’ vehicles are becoming uncompetitive with those developed by some Chinese firms.
These developments jeopardize a significant driver for developed world economies and employment; the answer is to adapt new technologies, such as simpler electric powertrains, artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous operation.
Some cities, particularly in Europe, are looking to restrict cars or their speed. This can lay the groundwork for a new type of low-speed EV that does not need to meet automotive safety standards, and could be made locally, and from a wider choice of materials. Automakers should give more consideration to right-sizing vehicles, offer subscriptions and flexible ownership models, foster a closer integration with cities and their mobility services, and partner with local micro-factories.
The most successful automakers may be those that supply autonomous, connected, and electric platforms for integration with locally-made coaches and provide cities with effective last mile mobility for people and goods. This could generate substantial new business for the automotive industry, especially as it sells fewer vehicles in densely populated cities, where more of the world’s population will be living and where goods delivery growth will far outstrip automobile growth.
A sustainable future for all
Encouragingly, the specific enablers – batteries, solar panels, cameras, semiconductors, and wireless connectivity – are all rapidly falling in cost and becoming widely available. This means that mobility solutions can work for even the poorest, including people living in wealthy countries.
Despite facing significant challenges – not least the cybersecurity threat, and the disruption of artificial intelligence – the automotive industry’s focus on sustainable, affordable mobility may foster new approaches and strengthen collaboration
The increasing abundance of technology could shift the industry to deliver shared mobility solutions, electric two- and three-wheelers, or even e-kits that can be retrofitted to commonly used non-motorised vehicles such as tricycles, handcarts, and wheelchairs. A solution like this is needed everywhere, providing mobility for everything from last mile goods delivery and indoor healthcare, to hospitality facilities, military bases, farms, and more.
Furthermore, approaches more commonly seen in poorer regions could become practical in wealthier countries. Recycled plastics, natural materials such as wood, bamboo, and hemp, and even farm waste might be usable because the strict materials requirements for crashworthiness and comfort can be relaxed for micro-vehicles providing last mile operation on relatively smooth urban streets.
Right-sized vehicles – made using circular economy principles, and fitted with a solar panel roof to support the battery’s daily driving energy needs – coud support public transport with increased ridership, and make moving people and goods easier on the wallet and the planet. Producing these vehicles in local micro-factories could create quality jobs, tackle urban landfill waste, and make communities more self-sufficient.
Despite facing some significant challenges – not least the cybersecurity threat, and the disruption of AI – the automotive industry’s focus on sustainable, affordable mobility may foster new approaches and strengthen collaboration. Technology could be the accelerator the industry needs to put people at the centre of the discussion and develop solutions that work for all.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of FISITA (UK) Ltd.
About the author
Dr. Christopher Borroni-Bird has served as Director of Advanced Technology Vehicle Concepts and EN-V Program at General Motors, Vice President of Strategic Development at Qualcomm, and as Chief Engineer for the Google Self-Driving Project that became Waymo. His latest project, Afreecar, is a philanthropic initiative which seeks to provide affordable mobility to people in Africa unable to afford a car.
Dr. Christopher Borroni-Bird is the author of Sustainable and Affordable Mobility for All: Putting the Heart Back into Technology – SAE International (ISBN 978-1-4686-0934-9)
Follow this link for more information, and to purchase a copy of the book:
https://www.sae.org/books/sustainable-affordable-mobility-all-putting-heart-back-technology-r-586