FISITA World Mobility Summit speaker Ben Townsend, Head of Automotive at Thatcham Research shares his thoughts on the theme of the event, “To EV, or not to EV?”
With over 20 years’ experience in the engineering industry, ranging from aerospace and defence to automotive, Ben Townsend is a fellow of the Institute of Mechanical Engineers and a Chartered Engineer. Ben heads up the automotive products and services activities at Thatcham Research, where, as he’ll outline at the FISITA World Mobility Summit in November 2024, much of his work involves highlighting the need to make insurance a core design attribute.
In the build-up to the 2024 FISITA World Mobility Summit, we asked Ben to share some thoughts on the theme of the event, “To EV, or not to EV?”.
What are the key challenges for the automotive industry in the transition to clean mobility, and how could these be overcome?
The automotive industry faces two fundamental challenges in its transition to clean mobility. The first challenge stems from over-regulation that has become prescriptive rather than enabling. While we universally acknowledge clean mobility as essential for a sustainable future, the current regulatory environment attempts to define specific technical solutions rather than desired outcomes. This approach severely constrains innovation and ultimately works against the market forces that could drive meaningful progress toward sustainability.
The second critical challenge lies in achieving widespread adoption of new technologies. The dramatic improvements in living standards over the past 150 years have been significantly driven by access to affordable, efficient mobility. We cannot sacrifice this societal achievement in our pursuit of cleaner transportation. Success in this transition requires the coordinated effort of three essential stakeholder groups, namely technology developers, legislators, and insurers. The insurance sector holds particular significance as it possesses the power to effectively halt the implementation of any new technology. Only through collaborative rather than adversarial relationships among these groups can we ensure a successful transition to clean mobility.
Sales of battery electric vehicles are slower than initially hoped and expected, but the products themselves are highly compelling. What has impressed you most about the evolution of BEVs?
As an electric vehicle owner, I find the overall package impressive, but the primary resistance from consumers stems from cost barriers and uncertainty about the technology. While we’re seeing encouraging trends in cost reduction, particularly in battery technology, significant obstacles remain. Access to off-road parking at residential properties and the availability of domestic electricity tariffs are significant issues throughout Europe. Additionally, the high costs associated with public charging stations can often be prohibitively expensive for many users. My personal situation, with access to off-street parking and a solar PV array for charging, represents a privilege that most potential buyers don’t share.
What stands out most notably in the evolution of electric vehicles has been the remarkable pace of new market entrants. The fundamental architecture of electric vehicles has created opportunities for new manufacturers to enter the market, leading to a rapidly evolving and increasingly competitive landscape that has accelerated innovation across the industry.
We’re seeing regional and national governments introduce restrictions or bans on the sales of internal combustion engine vehicles after certain dates. Is this the right approach, or should market forces lead the transition to clean mobility?
The transition to cleaner, potentially more expensive technologies is unlikely to be driven purely by market forces, making some degree of regulatory intervention necessary to seed the market. However, the current approach of implementing outright bans on specific technologies while attempting to prescribe solutions through regulation is fundamentally misguided. Instead of working collaboratively toward our shared goals, this approach risks shutting down potentially viable solutions simply because they don’t align with current regulatory fashion or understanding.
Regulation should focus on defining clear objectives, such as zero tailpipe emissions or total lifecycle emission targets, rather than mandating specific technical solutions. We must remain open to all innovative approaches that could achieve clean mobility rather than prematurely excluding potentially valuable solutions through overly prescriptive regulation.
Electrification appears to be inevitable, but few automakers can compete by producing BEV only, and BEV is not suitable for all markets, in terms of cost, infrastructure, terrain… How will the transition play out?
The transition is already unfolding in European and UK markets, where we’re witnessing a softening of regulations around hybrid vehicles. This trend is likely to continue, with a mix of hybrid ICE and full BEV solutions becoming the predominant mobility options for the next two decades. Looking forward, my hope is that regulators will adopt a more collaborative approach and allow market forces to shape the nature of clean mobility beyond 2050, rather than attempting to prescribe specific technical solutions.
Thatcham Research is all about automotive risk intelligence. What do you see as the key risks that automakers and suppliers need to mitigate against in the transition to clean mobility? And how can automakers and suppliers ensure their products are truly sustainable?
Risk is an inherent aspect of life, and the sustainable continuation of human activity requires both understanding and insuring against these risks. This principle applies equally to mobility, where risk understanding facilitates societal adoption through insurance. While identifying specific key risks can be challenging due to their multiplicity, we must consider several critical risk areas throughout a product’s lifecycle, notably occupant safety, technology security, damage susceptibility, and repair cost-effectiveness. By addressing these risk factors during the design phase, we can maintain societal mobility while ensuring the sustainability of our technological solutions.
You’re speaking at the FISITA World Mobility Summit in November 2024. The event is titled, ‘To EV, or not to EV?’ With that in mind, what will be your key message to delegates?
The central message is the critical importance of collaborative effort throughout the technology design process. Too often, stakeholders work in isolation, attempting to resolve conflicts only at the end of design cycles. This approach is fundamentally flawed. Understanding and addressing risk areas through the design process, taking an engineering approach to eliminating risks, benefits both financial and societal interests. This collaborative approach represents the only viable path to achieving widespread adoption of these essential new technologies.