Leaders in the technology of mobility gathered in Detroit to address the question, “To EV, or not to EV?” By Martin Kahl
“Yes, and yes”…“It depends”…and “It’ll take time”—those were the answers.
The question: To EV, or not to EV?
It was about electrification, but the 2024 FISITA World Mobility Summit, held recently at the General Motors Technical Center in Warren, Michigan, was no pure EV conference, no battery EV echo chamber; the title, agenda, and speaker line-up were deliberately selected to ensure a technology-agnostic discussion on a topic that’s playing such a key role in the evolution of mobility and shaping the future of the automotive industry.
To an audience of engineering leaders—all aligned on the need for cleaner mobility—the question was positioned not as, “Should there be EVs at all?” but rather, “Should we be going all-in on EV, or are there alternatives?”
Much discussed at the FISITA Summit was the recent resurgence of PHEVs and EREVs, most notably in China, but increasingly also in North America and Europe
The destination is clear, and the future is electric, we were told; to get there, we need a mix of electrified cars and combustion engines. Where once we heard about bridging technology, notably plug-in hybrid (PHEV) solutions, we instead heard talk not of a bridge, but a road to cleaner mobility—and there’s more than one road. Choose your own adventure and pick the road that suits you best: an internal combustion engine (ICE) running on cleaner fuels, BEV, PHEV, or extended range EV (EREV). And yes, you read that correctly: much discussed at the FISITA Summit was the recent resurgence of PHEVs and EREVs, most notably in China, but increasingly also in North America and Europe.
Bookended by raw materials and charging infrastructure, the FISITA Summit agenda featured speakers from across the value chain, with experts on insurance and artificial intelligence as well as from automakers, suppliers, and independent industry experts.
Following a scene-setting session built around regional overviews of the Americas, Europe, and Asia, a highly insightful panel on the topic, “East meets West in the transition to clean mobility,” underlined the chasm between the automotive industry in China and, well, everywhere else.
The global aspect of the industry is being tested, and it’s starting to look increasingly regional—with the obvious caveat that every regional EV market currently relies almost entirely on a global battery supply chain anchored in China.
In Europe and the US, EVs remain an environmental consideration; in China’s market of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), it’s a different story
For decades, the established global automakers were happy to leverage China as a manufacturing location and a seemingly endless source of sales, confident that it would always remain a decoupled market whose domestic brands presented no threat outside that country.
How things have changed.
EV sales may be slower than previously forecast and previously hoped, but the general message was that it’s the pace of sales, not the speed, that counts.
Foreign brands are taking a beating in China; Europe’s EV market had been moving at speed, but it’s currently slowing—so much so, in fact, that ACEA, the European association representing automakers, has talked of a “stagnating” EV market in the EU; and in the last quarter the US surpassed Europe in EV sales.
In Europe and the US, EVs remain an environmental consideration; in China’s market of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), it’s a different story. Any new car is assumed to be an NEV; more than environmentally friendly cars, they’re technology platforms that enable services and new business models, and satisfy the always-online lifestyle expectations of those digital natives born after 1990 in a market that prioritises in-vehicle experience over driving experience.
There are other reasons for the success of NEVs in China, of course—the registration plate lottery, long-term industrial planning, and battery supply chain dominance—but what is undeniable is that a Chinese smartphone manufacturer has made an EV that at least one top global auto industry executive openly says he loves and doesn’t want to give up.
“To EV, or not to EV?” was intended as a provocative theme for the 2024 FISITA Summit, and the discussions proved that it’s not a binary question
Clearly, the challenge for the established automakers is to deliver such products that consumers want, and don’t want to give up. In most markets, regulatory compliance means only one thing: EV—but there are reasons for the cautious responses to the “EV/not EV” question at the FISITA Summit. Engineers said they see technology mandates as a flawed approach; they see EVs as an answer but not the answer; and the high upfront price of EVs compared to ICE vehicles is just one of the numerous barriers to entry preventing people buying cars they otherwise wouldn’t want to give up.
Those other barriers to entry were covered at Summit by a second panel discussion, and include the lack of a visibly adequate charging infrastructure, charging times, charging experience, range anxiety (and now also ‘charging anxiety’), safety concerns, and resale value uncertainty. Real or hearsay, these issues stem from a lack of consumer knowledge. And that’s where the automakers have plenty of work to do.
“To EV, or not to EV?” was intended as a provocative theme for the 2024 FISITA Summit, and the discussions proved that it’s not a binary question. In the long term, electrification is assumed. The focus now should be on the level of electrification, and the speed of the EV transition. A successful transition requires collaboration among stakeholders, the adoption of design for sustainability, and manufacturing flexibility to manage the complexity of building EVs alongside ICE and hybrid vehicles, because for as long as the answer to the question remains, “It depends”, the other answer will remain true for the transition: “It’ll take time.”
About the author: Martin Kahl is Chief Technology Officer at FISITA