FISITA World Mobility Summit speaker Sam Abuelsamid shares his thoughts on the topic of the event’s title, “To EV, or not to EV?”
Sam Abuelsamid is a principal research analyst at Guidehouse Insights, where he leads the E-Mobility solution, working with clients to help them understand emerging technology trends and shape strategies.
A mechanical engineer, Sam has more than two decades of experience as a product development engineer in the automotive industry, working on advanced electronic control systems and embedded software and architecture, and his CV prior to joining Guidehouse Insights includes time in automotive journalism, and product and technology communications at Ford and General Motors.
At the 2024 FISITA World Mobility Summit, Sam’s keynote, ‘Back to the future: A brief history of electrification’ will explore the evolution of electric mobility and consider the options available to automakers and suppliers developing solutions for cleaner mobility.
In the build-up to the 2024 FISITA World Mobility Summit, we spoke to Sam and asked him to share some thoughts on the event’s topic, “To EV, or not to EV?”
What are the key challenges for the automotive industry in the transition to clean mobility, and how could these be overcome?
Consistently the biggest barriers for consumers moving to clean transportation options have been vehicle affordability and charging infrastructure. Despite some price cuts in the past year, the cost of BEVs has remained stubbornly high and well above comparable vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE). This is particularly true in the lower end of the market where there are relatively few options, especially in North America. At the upper end of the market, the price gap is smaller but these premium vehicles have a much smaller addressable market.
With respect to charging, there are issues with availability and time to charge. The expansion of DC fast charging has been much slower than hoped with the NEVI program, in part due to delays in getting power supply upgrades. Currently, charging sits third behind high-performance data centres and health care facilities for substation upgrades. Even with the current availability of DC charging, it has been woefully unreliable, which has led to some people who were considering BEVs to delay their purchase.
Sales of battery electric vehicles are slower than initially hoped and expected, but the products themselves are highly compelling. What has impressed you most about the evolution of BEVs?
The improved packaging available with electric propulsion allows for vehicles with a smaller footprint on the road to maintain the interior volume of a vehicle a size class up. It also enables more design flexibility although in many cases, BEVs still look too much like traditional ICE vehicles especially if a common flexible platform is being used. Personally, one of my favourite capabilities of a BEV is strong regenerative braking and one pedal driving that allows for smoother overall operation.
We’re seeing regional and national governments introduce restrictions or bans on the sales of internal combustion engine vehicles after certain dates. Is this the right approach, or should market forces lead the transition to clean mobility?
I think we need a combination of the two. Market forces alone probably won’t move the needle fast enough from early adopters to the mainstream as we’ve seen in the past couple of years. Automakers tried to build EVs they thought consumers wanted and could be profitable, but they didn’t necessarily hit the mark and now they are pulling back instead of moving more aggressively to what consumers probably really want, which is cheaper EVs. So, demand pull and regulatory push will probably be needed for some time yet.
Electrification appears to be inevitable, but few automakers can compete by producing BEV only, and BEV is not suitable for all markets, in terms of cost, infrastructure, terrain… How will the transition play out?
We’ve had overall growth in EV sales for quite a few years now, but we’ve yet to hit the proverbial hockey stick inflection. In North America in particular, it’s been fairly linear growth for five years as more products come to market and more affordable offerings become available. As the volume grows, that linear increase means the percentage growth has declined, but it’s still going up, albeit with occasional hiccups such as in the USA in early 2024 when several vehicles lost IRA tax credit eligibility due to battery sourcing rules. Later in the decade, as more affordable offerings and more accessible public charging become available, we’ll probably see an uptick in growth.
Public charging, especially more AC kerbside availability, is especially important because we need to move BEVs into the used car market which is about three times the size of the new car market. Nearly half of used car buyers don’t have access to off-street at-home charging and need an affordable and reliable alternative. If those buyers can’t or won’t adopt BEVs, residual values will remain dismal and the bulk of the vehicle parc won’t transition. We also need alternatives like extended range EVs at the larger end of the spectrum to enable use cases such as towing.
Your client base is global, and spans all forms of mobility technology, from established automakers and suppliers to start-ups and tech companies seeking to disrupt the industry. How much of a disruption is the quest for cleaner mobility, and how do traditional and new companies balance this with the myriad other technical, regulatory, and business challenges they face when delivering next-generation mobility?
The current transitions we’re seeing with nearly simultaneous adoption of electrification, next-generation E/E architectures and software-defined vehicles, and assisted and automated driving technologies is easily the biggest disruption the industry has had in its nearly 140-year history. In previous eras of change, such as the 1970s when we adopted safety and emissions technologies to meet new regulations, the changes were more incremental. Basic vehicle architectures didn’t really change that much, but we added plenty of additional content, such as catalytic converters and early engine controls. Since then, the vehicle has continued to evolve piecemeal, leaving us with cars with more than 100 electronic control units and several miles of wiring.
This upcoming generation largely does away with engines, transmissions, traditional HMIs and for the first time, the vehicle can continue to evolve, develop and perhaps even get better for years after leaving a factory. There are downsides, like loss of privacy and subscriptions that you continue to pay for years after the car loan is paid off. Some elements like electrification and safety technology are undoubtedly beneficial to consumers and society, while others are yet to be proven.
You’re speaking at the FISITA World Mobility Summit in November 2024. The event is titled, ‘To EV, or not to EV?’ With that in mind, what will be your key message to delegates?
As someone who genuinely enjoys driving, I love nothing more than a winding road. When it comes to vehicle electrification we’ve been on an exceptionally long and winding road for more than a century and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. As we have in recent years, we’ll undoubtedly hit more potholes and speed bumps, and we’ll probably have to pause along the way to change an occasional flat tyre. But in the end, we’ll hopefully get to our destination.
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The Summit is a must-attend event for global mobility leaders, offering a dynamic platform for high-level discussions, collaboration, and debate. It’s a key event within the global mobility community, driving thought leadership and fostering engagement in FISITA’s member-led environment, with an agenda featuring high level speakers involved in the transition to cleaner mobility.